It’s peak sales time, and as we begin 2016, you can expect the usual rash of predictions about what will be enticing consumers to book.
Beneath all the hype from brands trying to sell their own product, there is a definite trend for 2016, with package giants Tui, Thomas Cook and Monarch moving as close to the no-frills and scheduled airline models as never before.
Tui, for example, is offering packages and flights to Iceland for the first time in 2016 – not somewhere you would normally associate it with, but a destination that is definitely trending.
Tui launched flights and packages to Costa Rica in November, stealing a march on British Airways, which debuts there in May.
Thomas Cook is also changing its spots and now uses its airline as a long-haul hybrid, offering a series of scheduled flights to the US, mainly from Manchester; while Monarch Group has abandoned charter and long-haul and its airline now operates more like easyJet, bolting on packages to scheduled flights.
Cutting down
One effect that the morphing of business models is having is the change in average duration. A OnePoll survey of more than 2,000 people in September, commissioned by Tui, found that the average holiday is now 11.5 days – a decrease from the traditional fortnight presumably due to people taking more but shorter breaks.
Predictably, Tui tips Cuba for 2016, where there is likely to be a rush from the UK ahead of the island liberalising relations with the US. It also highlights Sri Lanka, where Tui will operate direct charters next winter and where the peace dividend has seen many new hotels open.
Tui believes long-haul is definitely a long-term trend, citing a 350% increase in long-haul customers in a decade. Among the findings of its survey was that 77% of people were prepared to fly more than nine hours to reach their destination. In short-haul, it will be the western Mediterranean that is largely the winner as doubts about the safety of Turkey, Egypt and Tunisia, whether unfounded or not, will be high in consumers’ minds.
One bright spot in the eastern Med will be Greece, which will pick up a lot of business now its position in the European Union is secure and which will attract people nervous about Turkey. Both Tui and Thomas Cook tip Greece, with the latter debuting in Thassos with its own flight and reintroducing Manos as a dedicated brochure.
The view from the retail side seems broadly in line with what the operators are saying. Advantage head of commercial and marketing John Sullivan predicts a good year for Greece and says the western Mediterranean will continue to do “incredibly well”.
He adds he expects the double-digit growth Advantage has seen in long-haul to continue, with the US being a particular star. However, he cautions: “We need a sustained period of peace and quiet to stop distracting people. If there is, then Tunisia, Turkey and Egypt will return.” Sullivan’s conclusion is nevertheless that 2016 will be a good year.
“I think we will see growth,” he adds. Travel Counsellors’ commercial director Kirsten Hughes also highlights “a move away from destinations perceived to be at risk – Tunisia, Morocco, Sharm el Sheikh”, adding: “On the back of that we will see an uplift to Spain.”
Hughes says long-haul is on the up, with a “big jump to the Caribbean” due to a reluctance to travel to Middle East destinations such as Dubai despite discounted rates. “The Middle East is doing okay, but the people going are those that have been before,” she said. She was also optimistic about 2016: “Despite everything that’s going on, people still travel,” she adds.
