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Last week, 113 people completed the survey. This included 25 in the south east (22%), 15 in the north west (13.5%) and 12 in London (10.5%), as well as five in Scotland (4.5%) and four each in Wales (3.5%), Northern Ireland (3.5%) and the Republic of Ireland (3.5%).
40% of respondents were homeworkers (45), while 39% were from independent high street agencies (44). The rest of the responses (24) came from a mixture of agents from high street multiples, online or call centre agencies, and others.
Last week, we speculated on the effect of the government’s new “rule of six”, its efforts to tighten Covid measures in England and similar moves by the UK’s devolved administrations. Well a week’s as long a time in travel as it is in politics; days after our Week 23 survey closed (covering trading in the week to 11 September), the national press was awash with headlines about the UK heading back into lockdown – and it’s evident those concerns have started to further impact consumer confidence in travel, particularly travel within the UK, a mainstay for many this summer.
Nearly a third of Week 24 (covering trading in the week to 18 September) Tracker respondents (35) said consumer confidence was the biggest issue facing their businesses in the past week, while 30 – more than a quarter – said their greatest concern was a general lack of new business. But most striking was the massive spike in respondents flagging concerns specifically about the UK and Ireland’s own Covid measures and the impact these were having on the two aforementioned issues, and what effect these would have on domestic travel plans, in particular.
In total, 22 of our Week 24 respondents (20%) made explicit reference to either domestic or local Covid restrictions here in the UK and Ireland in their answers on the greatest challenges facing their businesses. To put that in context, each week’s Tracker survey typically features one or two comments, at most, on these issues, with Week 24 perhaps – for the first time – highlighting the likely impact of a fresh national lockdown, and of agents’ growing concerns about the approaches that are being taken by ministers with scant support available to the travel sector.
“With local lockdowns, it’s very difficult to sell anything,” said one respondent, while another added: “There is a continuing lack of consumer confidence in travelling anywhere, including the UK now.” Several other responses made reference to local and UK lockdowns, concerns raised by clients about how new measures like the rule of six will impact domestic trips, and worries about whether travel insurance policies will actually cover disruption caused by local lockdowns. It seems like hardly a week goes by where we don’t lurch from one great unknown to another. This comment perhaps best sums up the past six-to-seven months for many in travel: “There is a total lack of consumer confidence with local lockdowns and quarantine. Some suppliers still continue to drag their heels with refunds, but we’ve nearly got through them all now. Just need to start on the next round of rebooks.”
Other issues raised by Tracker respondents during Week 24 included quarantine (22 references), cancellations (13), refunds (12) and cash flow (six). In total, their concerns spanned 15 discernible themes, which also included broader concerns about the insurance sector’s return to / re-engagement with travel, what the end of the furlough scheme will mean for many respondents’ businesses, when long-haul travel will resume in any great numbers, and worries about whether coronavirus will decimate the operator and supplier sector, reducing choice and competition.
Here are some of the other comments we received about respondents’ greatest concerns during Week 24 (week to 18 September).
“Demand still isn’t improving, and we’re still waiting for refunds from suppliers [which is] creating negative reviews for us as an agent.”
“For me, it’s still the lack of confidence I feel clients are experiencing – very few enquiries forthcoming for long-haul destinations in 2021. Late availability in Europe is still being asked about, but clients are tending to play it safe.”
“There is a lack of confidence to travel or book, and a lack of understanding of what is in place and when situations will change with various destinations.
“Customers are in no hurry to book any of the enquiries that have been worked on. There’s just too much uncertainty.”
“Waiting for the weekly [quarantine] update is almost like listening in to the pop charts on a Sunday decades ago to see who is top of the Covid chart this week.”
“Now I’ve brought my staff back from furlough, we still haven’t had the number of enquiries and bookings to justify their hours yet. However, we are working on a number of things like e-shots and increased Facebook presence.”
“Quarantine measures are affecting late summer and early winter bookings. Any bookings we made in June and July for travel in September and October are now being cancelled.”
Each week, we ask all of our Tracker respondents to reflect on the current trading environment in travel, and what the impact of new Covid measures and rules have meant for them – here are just some of the comments we received in Week 24.
“It’s very challenging due to lack of confidence and government direction. Rules are changing all the time, and the lack of testing at airports to shorten quarantine time is exacerbating the problems.”
“Struggling to get commitments from customers due to the unknown – last-minute quarantine restrictions, travelling against FCDO advice, risk of test results not coming back on time, and now the possibility of another lockdown here.”
“We're now facing having to rebook customers’ cruises that have already been rebooked two or three times.”
“It’s exceptionally tough with little light on the horizon for many months yet.
However, all research points to being very busy once it is safe to travel again.”
“Unless confidence increases, the industry will almost disappear. We're dreading the end of the furlough scheme as that – like for most operators and agents – is currently keeping us afloat. Desperate times for our industry.”
“When someone walks in, excited to be thinking about next year, they're left totally deflated when you tell them where they can't go. Every new enquiry or booking is hard work, especially with all the Covid forms – customers have no idea how to fill them in.”
Week 24 could be described as a qualified success in terms of destination interest, with the number of respondents reporting interest from clients in some of the Tracker’s main destinations and regions either increasing or holding steady. Despite the challenges posed by ever-changing quarantine rules and local travel restrictions, interest in Europe remains broadly strong with the number of respondents reporting interest from clients in European (Mediterranean) destinations up one percentage point (ppt) to 56.5%, European (non-Mediterranean) up an encouraging 11 ppts to 27%, and domestic (UK and Ireland) up 0.5 ppts to 26%.
Further afield, the number of respondents reporting interest from clients in the Caribbean fell just 0.5 ppts to 25%, remaining the fourth most enquired-after region according to Tracker responses. There was positive news for several others too, with respondents reporting interest in Asia up one ppt to 13.5%, Indian Ocean up 0.5 ppts to 14.5% and US and Canada up one ppt to 17.5%.
The number reporting interest from clients in the Middle East, however, fell four ppts from 9% to 5%, while rates for Africa, Australia and the South Pacific, and Central and Southern America continue to prove both limited, and volatile.
Interest in beach holidays, meanwhile, recovered ground lost during Week 23, with the number of respondents reporting interest from clients in beach breaks up 7.5 ppts from 56% to 63.5% – the same level it was in Week 22. It was, however, an otherwise less encouraging week in terms of interest as judged by holiday type, with all categories down week-on-week with the exception of snow sports holidays, which ended the week up one ppt (to 6.5%)
Domestic (UK and Ireland) bookings took another hit in Week 24, with the number of respondents reporting new domestic sales down another two ppts from 18.5% to 16.5% – both figures lower than the rate in Week 21 (19.5%). Conversely, the rate of respondents reporting new European (Mediterranean) and, in particular, European (non-Mediterranean) bookings rebounded significantly in Week 24, with European Med up 8.5 ppts to 49% and European non-Med up eight ppts from 16% to 24%.
There was also a 4.5 ppt increase in the number of respondents reporting new Caribbean bookings during Week 24, up to 12.5%, and one ppt for Asia (up to 5.5%). But there’s no escaping just how slim some of those bars are for other destinations right now, with only the rate of respondents reporting new US and Canada bookings surpassing the 5% mark.
The number of respondents reporting new beach holiday bookings increased by four ppts from 42% to 46%, while those taking reporting taking new city break bookings also increased four ppts from 15% to 19%. Cruise, meanwhile, continues to suffer, down another 2.5 ppts from 13% to 10.5%.
This graph showing the number of respondents reporting bookings for different booking windows is, perhaps, the most intriguing takeaway from this week’s Tracker data as it shows, for the first time, linear growth from the current / most imminent booking window through to the furthest out, with the exception of the more loosely defined “Beyond” window. However, it must be said that this comes with the caveat that Week 24 was an unusually poor week for five of the Tracker’s six booking windows, with only winter 2020 bucking the downward trend (up 4.5 ppts to 17.5%).
Week after week, we receive comments from agents telling us they are no longer taking new bookings for summer 2020, and are instead focusing their attentions solely on bookings for travel later this year, next year – and even further out, where possible. It’s therefore not really surprising to report the proportion of respondents reporting new bookings for summer 2020 falling, during Week 24, to its lowest level – 11.5% – since the Tracker was launched in early April, down eight ppts from 19.5% in Week 23. Autumn 2020 also fell two ppts from 16.5% to 14.5%. Mercifully, the rate of Tracker respondents reporting no bookings in Week 24 fell 2.5 ppts to 31.5%.
Here’s how the picture has changed over the past three weeks:
Week 24 saw our Tracker respondents report contact from 108 different suppliers, 10 shy of the record of 118 in Week 21, but still making it the sixth week where more than 100 suppliers were flagged. Jet2holidays was most frequently cited (31 times), followed by Royal Caribbean (14), If Only (12) and Gold Medal (11).
Elsewhere, there were nine mentions for Celebrity Cruises, eight for Travel 2 and seven for P&O Cruises, Newmarket Holidays and JTA. Those with five or more included Olympic Holidays, Tui, Sandals, MSC Cruises, NCL, Railbookers, Palladium, Emirates, Mainstreet, AmaWaterways and Premier Holidays.
Jet2holidays was praised for its communication, timely and informative updates on quarantine and travel restrictions, and speed of its refunds, while Travel 2 was recognised for how quickly it has been able to get quotes over to agents. Others that impressed included Mainstreet for its “consistently competitive prices” and “regular posting of deals”; easyJet Holidays for its 2021 pricing; and Celebrity Cruises for its weekly email, which featured posters one agent was able to use in their pop-up shop. Here are just a few of the other supplier comments we received in Week 24:
“Beachcomber updated us on what they are doing to get hotels in Mauritius ready for when the country opens.”
“Lusso called to see how we’re doing and update us on their own business.”
“Great Little Breaks have put out some great offers, which are accessible to a lot of people who are struggling financially but need a break.”
“Typically Italian are always so helpful, and nothing is too much trouble.”
“USAirtours gave a really interesting and informative webinar on Vancouver and the Rocky Mountaineer.”
There’s only so much more travel, and the trade, is going to be able to squeeze out of what has already been a summer of unprecedented disruption, and chaos. The number of respondents reporting new summer 2020 bookings has fallen to its lowest level in the Tracker’s history, and we are now starting to see the proportion of new bookings each week that fall into later booking windows increase consistently, while summer 2020 and autumn 2020 fall back.
Amid all the chaos though, it’s easy to forget a small number of destinations have – mercifully – enjoyed consistency of quarantine regulations for several months now, notably Italy, Greece and Turkey, as well as the UK, and this is helping keep both interest in travel to Europe and the Med and bookings up despite all that is going on.
Encouraging too is the consistent interest from clients in the Caribbean, and the fairly steady rate of respondents reporting bookings each week. With several airlines building their winter leisure schedules around the Caribbean, and the region looking to open up to UK visitors, there could yet be some light here.
There is no doubt, though, that trading is every bit as difficult as it has been for the past three-to-four months, and the spectre of a new national lockdown will do nothing for consumer confidence.
As ever, we invite all of our respondents to share anything else that’s on their minds – their trials, tribulations and triumphs, and some of the ways they’re getting through this crisis. Here’s what you had to say this week:
“Focusing on 2021 and not worrying about a second generation cancelling for 2020 (those rebooked from earlier this year). Building new go-to market relationships.”
“We’re keeping in touch with clients as best we can, even if it’s negative, and communicating with suppliers/destinations to show them we are still working – we’ll hopefully get some partnerships in place for promoting 2021.”
“We’re switching bookings for the winter to minimise the hit. I think we're in for a quiet/hard winter so if we can minimise the hit, we're better placed for the future.”
“We have really refocused on ‘experience’ breaks – truffle hunting, prosecco tasting, vineyard tours, etc. These short breaks in Italy have proved really popular.”
“We’re updating window displays, getting rid of old brochures, and sharing great offers for next year on social media.”
“Had the full team in the shop for lunch and laugh.”
“We do seem to have some busy days (with enquiries) so it's good to see some of our customers responding positively to the news the whole team is back at work.”
“I’m just trying to be upbeat and book any new enquiries, even late bookings – you have to start somewhere!”
